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Accounting for Hydro-climatic and Water Use Variability in the Assessment of Past and Future Water Balance at the Basin Scale : Volume 371, Issue 371 (12/06/2015)

By Fabre, J.

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Book Id: WPLBN0004021439
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 6
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Accounting for Hydro-climatic and Water Use Variability in the Assessment of Past and Future Water Balance at the Basin Scale : Volume 371, Issue 371 (12/06/2015)  
Author: Fabre, J.
Volume: Vol. 371, Issue 371
Language: English
Subject: Science, Proceedings, International
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection, Copernicus GmbH
Publication Date:
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications


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Ruelland, D., Grouillet, B., Dezetter, A., & Fabre, J. (2015). Accounting for Hydro-climatic and Water Use Variability in the Assessment of Past and Future Water Balance at the Basin Scale : Volume 371, Issue 371 (12/06/2015). Retrieved from

Description: CNRS, HydroSciences Laboratory, Place Eugene Bataillon, 34095 Montpellier, France. This study assesses water stress by 2050 in river basins facing increasing human and climatic pressures, by comparing the impacts of various combinations of possible future socio-economic and climate trends. A modelling framework integrating human and hydro-climatic dynamics and accounting for interactions between resource and demand at a 10-day time step was developed and applied in two basins of different sizes and with contrasted water uses: the Herault (2500 km2, France) and the Ebro (85 000 km2, Spain) basins. Natural streamflow was evaluated using a conceptual hydrological model (GR4j). A demand-driven reservoir management model was designed to account for streamflow regulations from the main dams. Urban water demand was estimated from time series of population and monthly unit water consumption data. Agricultural water demand was computed from time series of irrigated area, crop and soil data, and climate forcing. Indicators comparing water supply to demand at strategic resource and demand nodes were computed. This framework was successfully calibrated and validated under non-stationary human and hydro-climatic conditions over the last 40 years before being applied under four combinations of climatic and water use scenarios to differentiate the impacts of climate- and human-induced changes on streamflow and water balance. Climate simulations from the CMIP5 exercise were used to generate 18 climate scenarios at the 2050 horizon. A baseline water use scenario for 2050 was designed based on demographic and local socio-economic trends. Results showed that projected water uses are not sustainable under climate change scenarios.

Accounting for hydro-climatic and water use variability in the assessment of past and future water balance at the basin scale

Grouillet, B., Fabre, J., Ruelland, D., and Dezetter, A.: Historical reconstruction and 2050 projections of water demand under anthropogenic and climate changes in two contrasted Mediterranean catchments, J. Hydrol, 522, 684–696, 2015.; Montanari, A., Young, G., Savenije, H., Hughes, D., Wagener, T., Ren, L., Koutsoyiannis, D., Cudennec, C., Toth, E., Grimaldi, S., Blöschl, G., Sivalapan, M., Beven, K., Gupta, H., Hipsey, M., Schaefli, B., Arheimer, B., Boegh, E., Schymanski, S., Baldassarre, G. D., Yu, B., Hubert, P., Huang, Y., Schumann, A., Post, D., Srinivasan, V., Harman, C., Thompson, S., Rogger, M., Viglione, A., McMillan, H., Characklis, G., Pang, Z., and Belyaev, V.: Panta Rhei – Evrything Flows': Change in hydrology and society – The IAHS Scientific Decade 2013–2022, Hydrol. Sci. J., 58, 1256–1275, 2014.; Perrin, C., Michel, C., and Andreassian, V.: Improvement of a parsimonious model for streamflow simulation, J. Hydrol., 10, 282–290, 2003.; Collet, L., Ruelland, D., Borrell-Estupina, V., Dezetter, A., and Servat, E.: Integrated modeling to assess long-term water supply capacity of a meso-scale Mediterranean catchment, Sci. Total Environ., 461–462, 528–540, 2013.; Dezetter, A., Fabre, J., Ruelland, D., and Servat, E.: Selecting an optimal climatic dataset for integrated modeling of the Ebro hydrosystem, in: Hydrology in a changing world: environmental and human dimensions (Proc. 7th FRIEND Int. Conf., Montpellier, France, 7–10 October 2014), 363, 355–360, IAHS Publ., 2014.; Fabre, J., Ruelland, D., Dezetter, A., and Grouillet, B.: Simulating past changes in the balance between water demand and availability and assessing their main drivers at the river basin scale, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1236–1285, doi:10.5194/hess-19-1263-2015, 2015.; Heinrichs, T., Lehner, B., and Alcamo, J.: An Integrated Analysis of Change in Water Stress in Europe, Int. Assess., 3, 15–29, 2012.; Ruelland, D., Ardoin-Bardin, S., Collet, L., and Roucou, P.: Simulating future trends in hydrological regime of a large Sudano-Sahelian catchment under climate change, J. Hydrol., 424–425, 207–216, 2012.


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